Leading up to the 2022 midterm elections, the majority of news outlets and polls expected that there would be a red wave for the Republican party due to President Biden’s low approval rating and inflation being a significant issue in the United States. Instead, what they got was closer to a red drop of rain. 

While the Republicans won the House of Representatives, only ten seats were flipped, which happens to be the least amount of seats flipped by the GOP (Grand Old Party) during the first term of a democratic presidency since 1978. Along with that, the Democratic party was able to gain a seat in the senate, and they were able to retain their majority. 

Many factors contributed to the party’s underperformance, but arguably the most significant factor was the presence of Donald Trump. Donald Trump has been the face of the GOP since he was in office and has remained consistently, widely popular within his party. However, he is not very popular outside of the GOP. Some of his highly regarded endorsements, such as Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race and Kari Lake in the Arizona gubernatorial race, reflected that.

This drastically changed the landscape for the 2024 presidential election because now, the popular belief is that there will be a new face of the party if Trump is a liability. An emerging favorite is Florida’s governor Ron Desantis, who won his reelection bid by a landslide. This would likely make for an exciting race because while Donald Trump has many loyalist politicians within the party, many want to move on from him, thus creating division.

To make matters worse, more division came after the midterms now that a new speaker must be elected. House Republican Kevin McCarthy won the nomination for House GOP leader, but he needs 218 votes to become House speaker, which looks very challenging. Many of McCarthy’s colleagues are suspicious of his loyalty to his party and have gone against people within their party who are supporting his bid. An example is an emerging feud between far-right representatives Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene, caused by Taylor Greene supporting McCarthy’s bid. What’s notable about this is that they were once allies.

Many aspects relating to the future of this party are unclear, but there is one thing for certain, they are in a much more complicated position than expected.